Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 37.873963 44.836912 52.502956 61.539769 71.869985 83.278389 96.797906
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 28.834729 38.365605 49.894584 64.734205 83.181578 105.202921 133.306233
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 23.492692 34.224794 48.174193 67.342141 92.662107 124.596787 167.494698
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 19.193796 30.271735 45.592212 67.839725 98.743498 139.503603 196.548785
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.334554 26.074473 41.815202 65.862288 100.816585 148.787563 218.381332
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.952873 23.566347 39.945274 66.101176 105.634248 161.749232 245.649014
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.239366 21.771612 38.811941 67.134526 111.456158 176.261936 275.733136
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 8.761320 18.231181 34.392689 62.476414 108.132046 177.070076 285.909736
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.836572 17.260277 34.030975 64.193538 114.677740 192.782221 318.726316
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.697178 15.675082 32.376907 63.515678 117.226508 202.417219 342.768744
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.397647 15.686607 33.557606 67.786011 128.159003 225.685980 388.901741
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.168317 13.548521 30.461078 64.104955 125.320743 226.741501 400.165640
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.666846 12.993581 30.529781 66.596326 134.018537 248.182912 447.025704
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.277706 12.638398 30.992739 69.972890 144.744065 273.988170 503.023584
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.881411 12.175313 31.153638 72.755206 154.589237 298.895386 558.919903
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.368731 11.290990 30.259572 73.286285 160.233691 316.841075 604.034381
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.764834 9.997152 28.223765 71.173972 160.582428 325.397770 633.467524
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.395463 9.262592 27.359977 71.429179 165.517948 342.391380 678.342242
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.121302 8.737527 26.914115 72.533028 172.201733 362.913174 730.408390
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.622257 7.327423 23.966966 67.555774 165.920133 358.833895 738.060727
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.468720 7.042719 23.933114 69.390950 174.066392 382.518012 797.354042
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.246750 6.433896 22.897657 68.666545 176.619972 395.514025 837.467294
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.214446 6.547681 23.943958 73.228876 191.104749 432.617140 924.295690